The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports by 0.5m tonnes to 16.0m tonnes, leaving corn exports unchanged at 22.0m tonnes and wheat and corn production unchanged at 23.4m tonnes and 26.8m tonnes, respectively.
According to the April forecast, the global wheat market in the 2024-2025 marketing year, compared to the previous month’s forecast, is expected to decline marginally in production, consumption and trade volumes, while ending stocks are expected to increase.
World wheat production is expected to decline by 0.3 million tonnes to 796.9 million tonnes due to lower production estimates in Saudi Arabia and the EU (-0.3 million tonnes to 121.0 million tonnes).
World wheat consumption is forecast 1.4 million tonnes lower at 805.2 million tonnes, mainly due to lower food, seed and industrial use in India and China.
World trade in MY 2024/2025 is projected 1.3 million tonnes lower to 206.8 million tonnes, mainly due to lower export forecasts for Russia (-1.0 million tonnes to 44.0 million tonnes), Australia (-0.5 million tonnes to 25.5 million tonnes) and the EU (-0.5 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes), only partially offset by higher exports for Canada (+0.5 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes) and Ukraine (+0.5 million tonnes to 16.0 million tonnes).
Exports in MY 2024/2025 are expected to be 7% lower than in the previous year.
Projected world ending stocks for MY 2024/2025 are increased by 0.6 million tonnes to 260.7 million tonnes, as increases in stocks in India, the Russian Federation, the US and the EU are partially offset by lower stocks in China. World stocks for 2024/2025 MY are now 3% below the previous year and the lowest since MY 2015/2016.
The updated forecasts for the global maize market in MY 2024/2025 assume higher production, consumption, trade volumes and a corresponding reduction in ending stocks.
The forecast for world maize production increased by 0.9 million tonnes to 1,215.1 million tonnes. Increases in the EU (+1.3 million tonnes to 59.3 million tonnes due to crop increases in Poland, Croatia, France and Germany, partially offset by decreases in Romania and Bulgaria), Tanzania and Honduras were partially offset by decreases in Moldova, Cambodia and Kenya.
The world export forecast rises by 2.3 million tonnes to 188.7 million tonnes. Major changes in world trade for 2024/2025 Mg include an increase in projected maize exports for the US (+2.5 million tonnes to 64.8 million tonnes) and a decrease for Pakistan.
Final maize stocks decreased by 1.3 million tonnes to 287.7 million tonnes, reflecting lower stocks in the US and higher stocks in South Korea, Pakistan.