Experts Club Analytical Centre has analysed the Albanian economy for the first ten months of 2025 and presented its analysis and forecast. Albania’s economy for the first ten months of 2025 maintains one of the fastest growth rates in Europe with low inflation, stable foreign exchange reserves and long-term tourism growth, but faces weakening industrial output and widening trade deficit.
The IMF mission and national statistics estimate that Albania’s real GDP grew by around 3.4-3.6 per cent at an annualised rate in the first half of 2025, which is in line with 2024 and above the European average. The services, construction and tourism sectors remain the main drivers of growth, with foreign tourists alone spending around €2.1bn in the country in the first six months, up 7-8% from a year earlier.
International institutions expect the economy to add about 3.4-3.7% at the end of the year: the IMF after the autumn mission raised the forecast to 3.5% for 2025, the World Bank and the EBRD also come out of growth above 3%.
Inflation in the country remains low and close to the target level. According to the IMF and national statistics, annual consumer price growth in 2025 is hovering around 2-2.3 per cent.
The labour market situation is improving moderately. The unemployment rate fell to 8.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 and is markedly below the historical average (around 14 per cent).
Industry remains the most vulnerable link. According to estimates by research centres and statistics, industrial production in Albania contracted by about 2.1% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, while the decline slowed to about 0.5% in the second quarter. Manufacturing output in June 2025 was 0.9 per cent below the level of a year ago. This reflects the challenges of traditional export industries-primarily textiles and garments-which are under pressure from currency appreciation and demographic outflows.
The external sector remains a weak spot in the macroeconomy. According to Albanian think tanks and INSTAT, the trade deficit in goods widened to about 25.3 percent of GDP in the first half of 2025, despite high tourism revenues. Remittances from migrants rose by around 5% to €1.2 billion, remaining an important source of external revenues, while foreign direct investment stabilised at around €1.1 billion over the same period.
Meanwhile, external sustainability looks comfortable. According to Trading Economics, Albania’s international reserves reached $7.3bn in September 2025. The IMF in its final Article IV statement explicitly recognises “strong reserves, lower public debt and one of the fastest growth rates in Europe” as the basis for further reforms and deeper integration with the EU.