According to a Serbian economist, Serbia’s economic growth in 2026 could be around 2.75%, but this scenario depends largely on the further development of the crisis in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices and general inflationary dynamics.
The energy factor for Serbia has become particularly sensitive in recent days. Against the backdrop of the conflict over Iran, Brent rose above $100 per barrel, and supply disruptions have already forced international organisations and central banks to revise inflationary and economic forecasts. The IMF has warned that a prolonged rise in energy prices could accelerate inflation and slow down global growth, while the ECB has already raised the inflation forecast for 2026 and lowered the growth estimate for the euro zone economy.
For Serbia, this means a double risk – because of imported inflation and because of worsening conditions for external demand in European markets. The National Bank of Serbia still maintains its own GDP growth forecast for 2026 at 3.5 per cent, but the external shock from oil and gas makes this estimate less sustainable, especially if high prices persist for more than a few weeks.
Additional pressures are related to the domestic fuel market. On 19 March, Serbian authorities extended the ban on exports of oil and oil products until 2 April, ordered the release of 40,000 tonnes of diesel from reserves and cut excise duties on fuel by 20% in an attempt to prevent shortages and price hikes. The next day, the US also extended the sanctions reprieve for NIS until 17 April, allowing oil imports to be maintained for the Serbian market.
Thus, the baseline scenario for the Serbian economy for 2026 is still positive, but increasingly dependent not only on domestic demand and investments, but also on geopolitics. If the situation in the Middle East stabilises, growth may remain closer to the official forecasts. If the energy crisis lingers, the pressure on inflation, consumption and industry may be stronger than expected at the beginning of the year.