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Friday, September 26, 2025

BNP Paribas forecasts German government bond yields to rise to 4%

The yield on 10-year German government bonds may rise to 4% in the coming years amid an expected increase in budget spending on defence and infrastructure, analysts at French bank BNP Paribas expect.

The last time the indicator exceeded this mark at the height of the global financial crisis in 2008.

The yield on 10-year German government bonds during trading on Tuesday rises by 0.8 basis points to 2.834%.

In the short term, the indicator will fluctuate at the level of 2.5-3%, but then will grow on the background of placement of new government debt worth almost 150 billion euros until the end of 2028. Yields may also rise due to the fact that the European Central Bank may be forced to start tightening monetary policy in case the growth of government spending in the eurozone will spur the acceleration of inflation, analysts believe.

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