Primary nickel production in the world in 2026 will decrease by 4.3% to 3.715 million tonnes, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) forecasts.
It rose 8.1% to 3.88 million tonnes in 2025.
These estimates do not take into account the possibility of any noticeable disruption to operations, INSG said in a statement.
Indonesia, the world’s top nickel producer, introduced additional measures in 2026 to better regulate the mining sector. The approved nickel ore mining quota for this year has been set at a much lower level than in 2025. However, it may be revised upwards, depending on the government’s assessment of supply and demand.
Global primary nickel consumption this year is expected to increase by 4.2% to 3.747 million tonnes. Last year, it rose by 3.5% to 3.473 million tonnes.
Thus, the global nickel market will experience a shortage in 2026. The deficit will be 32,000 tonnes, while a surplus of 283,000 tonnes was recorded in 2025, 226,000 tonnes in 2024 and 175,000 tonnes in 2023.
Uncertainty over output in Indonesia and conflict in the Middle East could lead to revised forecasts. “The implications (of the war in Iran-prime IF) for metal markets – both in terms of production and final demand – have not yet been properly assessed,” INSG said in a statement.
INSG is an independent intergovernmental organisation that was founded in 1990 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal. The group’s members are nickel producing and consuming countries: Australia, Brazil, Cuba, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Italy, Japan, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Sweden, Sweden, and the European Union.