Russian forces are conducting a “new campaign of cognitive warfare” through limited cross-border attacks in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, probably in support of the Kremlin’s attempts amid peace talks to convince the West to destroy front lines in Ukraine and get concessions to all its demands, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in a report.
The Institute for the Study of War analysed Russian offensives near Grabovsky in Sumshchyna and Sotnitsky Cossack in Kharkiv region.
“The Kremlin likely intends to portray these limited cross-border attacks on small border villages in inactive areas of the international border as part of a new large-scale Russian offensive to reinforce the false narrative that Ukraine’s front line is crumbling across the theatre of war,” the analysts said.
At the same time, ISW notes that they assess that the front lines in Ukraine are not in danger of rapid collapse and that a Russian victory is not inevitable.
“Russian forces have not created the conditions to launch a new offensive across the international border in northern Ukraine. ISW has found no evidence that Russian forces are preparing to conduct, or are capable of conducting, a significant offensive operation across the international border in northern Ukraine. Much of the border area of Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, including the Grabovskyi area, has been dormant since late summer 2025. The front line near Sotnitsky Kazachk has been dormant since the summer of 2024,” the report said.
According to the analysts’ forecast, Russian forces may try to launch new attacks across the border in the coming days and weeks as part of this campaign to influence peace talks, and the Kremlin and Russian media may make claims to amplify the effect of these attacks and show them as part of a new Russian offensive.
“However, the emergence of new small tactical attacks on the northern front line and increased Russian media propaganda around such activity will not indicate an actual new major ground offensive. The main purpose of these tactical attacks is to achieve an information effect, not to seize territory as part of a broader offensive,” the analysts said.
ISW notes that this assessment of theirs would be invalid if Russian forces were preparing to support ground operations, such as redeploying or sending new forces to the northern group of forces’ area of responsibility. however, as of now, this is not happening, the Institute for the Study of War says.
On the eve, the unmanned systems unit of Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, Striks, claimed to have foiled a Russian assault in the border village of Sotnytskyi Kazachok in Kharkiv region.
Also on 21 December, the United Forces group said that the Ukrainian military was trying to dislodge Russian forces from the border village of Grabovskoye in Sumy region, and fighting was continuing there. At the same time, according to the military, “despite separate reports in media space, there are still no Russian forces in the neighbouring village.”
In addition, the AFU confirmed the forced removal of about fifty Ukrainian civilians from Grabovskoye by the Russian military. According to the report, they are mostly elderly men and women, one of the women is 89 years old.
The military noted that “as a result of the enemy’s rapid offensive, units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces withdrew from several positions near Grabovskoye”.