Iran’s parliament is discussing the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key sea route through which some 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas exports pass. Although the final decision is to be made by the National Security Council, statements by Iranian authorities are already increasing pressure on the global energy market.
According to Iran’s IRINN news agency, General Esmail Kosari, a member of the parliamentary security committee, said that “blocking the Strait of Hormuz is under serious consideration.”
The consequences of a possible blockade are
1. a sharp rise in oil prices
The Strait of Hormuz provides passage for approximately 20 per cent of the world’s offshore oil and gas flow. In case of blockade, a surge in prices is possible: experts from the Financial Times and Rabobank predict a rise to $100-150 per barrel.
2.Inflation and economic turbulence
The UK has warned that energy prices and inflation could spike – “worse than the effects of COVID and sanctions against Russia taken together”.
3.Geopolitical tensions and NATO/US response
Blocking will lead to increased military presence of NATO countries in the region. Analysts believe that the US and Saudi Arabia will use vigorous measures and military action will increase the risk of regional conflict.
4.Iran’s economic losses
Despite its strategic importance, the restrictions will also hit Ira itself: oil is exported predominantly by sea. Export losses, reduced revenues and sanctions risks could hit the Iranian economy.
Analysis: to block or not to block?
The possibility of a blockade is confirmed but remains a “maximum scenario”.
Military measures: Iran has the capability to deploy sea mines, use drones and small ship fleets, but such actions threaten logistical failures and risks corresponding measures.
Legal aspects: the Strait of Hormuz is considered “International” under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – a formal ban is possible, but difficult legally.
Iran’s parliament is considering an extreme scenario – blocking the Strait of Hormuz – as a response to US and Israeli pressure. This could cause a significant spike in world oil prices, inflation and economic turmoil. However, such a measure also carries a huge risk for Iran. At the moment, it is a psychological and strategic tool, but without action by the National Security Council, it is nothing more than a threat and bargaining element for the time being.