Ukraine’s real deficit to cover all military and budget expenditures, which needs to be covered by foreign aid, in 2025-2026 is approximately equal to the figure for 2024 and amounts to about $90bn annually, according to Alexander Parashchy, head of the analytical department of Concorde Capital investment company.
“Ukraine’s total need for foreign aid – both financial and military – is about $90 billion on average for the 24th, 25th, 26th year,” he said during a discussion “what awaits the economy in 2025 and beyond” organised by the Centre for Economic Strategy on Friday.
Paraszczynski noted that in 2024, defence and security spending was about $95 billion, is likely to rise to $100-105 billion this year, and in 2026, according to new Defence Minister Denis Szmygal, the need could reach $120 billion.
He reminded that other needs of the state budget is about $42bn, while by taxes, fees, dividends, financing from the profits of the NBU Ukraine will be able to collect about $55bn this year.
“That is, we have a hole of about 142-55 – this is much more than the figure for the financial deficit,” the Concorde Capital analyst explained his calculations.
According to him, mainly due to the ERA programme (through frozen Russian assets) and the Ukraine Facility programme from the EU, as well as the balance of previously approved military aid from the United States, this need will be closed this year.
“Let’s hope that the new (US) administration will still provide assistance under the new programmes. But the biggest issue now, unfortunately, is the financing of the war in ’26, because our total need – both financial and military aid – next year could reach up to $100 billion. And how to cover this need, unfortunately, is still a very big question,” Parashchyy concluded.
As reported earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine needs to close the deficit of $65bn a year, of which $40bn is the need for the budget and $25bn for domestic defence production.