In recent months, European intelligence agencies have been sounding the alarm: Russia may step up its subversive activities on European soil. Heads of the intelligence services in the Czech Republic, Latvia and Sweden have issued this warning. They believe that Moscow is preparing for possible provocations, which could include both covert ‘false flag’ operations and attacks on critical infrastructure with the aim of destabilising the region.
The head of the Czech Security and Information Service (BIS), Michal Kudelka, has suggested the possibility of a limited Russian incursion into the territory of one of the NATO countries. He noted that this scenario could materialise in the coming months. Western countries are taking measures to prevent such a turn of events, but tensions in the region are mounting.
The head of the Latvian State Security Service, Normunds Mezviets, is more cautious in his assessment. He speaks of signs that Russia is preparing for more decisive action, but does not see an immediate threat of an attack. Mežviets also raises the question of whether Moscow is seeking to take concrete action or is simply attempting to sow fear and uncertainty in Western countries.
Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service, highlighted the danger of increasing sabotage activities. He referred to the recent incident involving a drone at Leipzig Airport, for which the Russian security services were blamed. Such actions, according to Nilsson, could have serious consequences for Europe’s security.
The intelligence services are concerned about a change in Russia’s tactics. Whereas previously the aim of such sabotage was to cause panic, attacks are now targeting facilities that support Ukraine — railways, logistics centres and defence enterprises. Michal Kudelka calls this ‘escalation for the sake of de-escalation’. Moscow hopes that the pressure it is exerting will force European countries to reconsider their support for Ukraine.
These warnings are causing tension in Europe, particularly following statements by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk regarding possible strikes by Russian drones or missiles against NATO countries. French President Emmanuel Macron considers such fears to be well-founded, based on intelligence reports.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin categorically denies any intention to attack NATO countries. Dmitry Peskov, the Russian President’s press secretary, stated in August that such assumptions are completely unfounded.
Meanwhile, Europe is preparing for potential threats, striving to strike a balance between being ready to defend its interests and avoiding unnecessary escalation of the conflict.