Global grain trade in the 2026/27 agricultural year (July–June) is forecast to total 505.8 million tonnes, 3.5 per cent less than last year, according to the FAO (the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation). According to the organisation’s monthly cereal report, the new estimate is 3.5 million tonnes lower than the previous forecast made in September.
“This reflects a downward revision of the forecasts for wheat and maize exports, driven mainly by problems with shipments via the Black Sea and insufficient capacity on alternative transport routes,” the report states. “The upward revision to the forecast for barley trade volumes only partially offsets the lost trade volumes in maize and wheat.”
Forecasts for maize exports from the EU have been revised downwards due to a reduction in supply from Ukraine resulting from logistical difficulties. At the same time, an increase in export supply from Australia has allowed for an upward revision of the forecast for barley trade, a significant portion of which will be shipped to China. The improved forecast for wheat exports from Kazakhstan has not been sufficient to fully offset the decline in supplies from Russia and Ukraine. According to the forecast, in the 2026 calendar year, the volume of international rice trade will fall by 2.2 per cent; however, in 2027, it may rise by 1.7 per cent to 61.2 million tonnes.
“In 2027, a revival in import demand is forecast in most regions; however, the availability of sufficient domestic stocks in East Asian countries suggests that the downward trend in their purchasing volumes may continue for the third consecutive year,” the document states.
According to the FAO forecast, the wheat harvest in 2026 will total 813.9 million tonnes, 3.3 per cent less than last year, whilst the total grain harvest will amount to 2,979 million tonnes (2.1 per cent less).