Analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their forecast for the average Brent price in the fourth quarter of this year to $90 a barrel from $80 a barrel previously expected due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“We now expect Gulf exports to normalise by the end of June instead of mid-May, as well as a slower recovery in regional production,” Goldman said in its review.
The forecast for the WTI price for the fourth quarter has been raised to $83 from $75 per barrel.
According to experts’ estimates, global oil inventories are declining at a record pace-11-12 million barrels per day (bpd) in April due to the loss of 14.5 million bpd of Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Goldman analysts forecast a global oil market deficit of 9.6 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026.
“Economic risks are higher than our baseline scenario for the oil market suggests, given the likelihood of further oil price rises, the excessively high cost of oil products and the threat of supply disruptions, and the unprecedented scale of the crisis itself,” Goldman said in a review.
Global oil demand will decline by 1.7 million b/s in the second quarter, experts forecast.
Analysts expect the average Brent price to be $100 per barrel in the current quarter and $93 per barrel in the third quarter.
Goldman’s forecast for the average price of Brent for 2026 has been raised to $90 from $83 per barrel, WTI – to $83 from $78 per barrel.
In addition, Citi experts raised their estimate for Brent in the second quarter under the baseline scenario to $110 per barrel, in the third quarter – to $95 per barrel, in the fourth quarter – to $80 per barrel. They expect disruptions in the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz until the end of May.
Under the “bullish” scenario, the problems will persist until the end of June, which could lead to a jump in oil prices to $150 per barrel. Under such circumstances, analysts assume an average price of $130 per barrel in the second and third quarters and $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter.