Reports that Russia is building a strategic reserve of new recruits further indicate that the Kremlin is not interested in ending the war against Ukraine and remains committed to pursuing its military objectives on the battlefield and may be preparing for conflict with NATO, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in a new report.
“Reports of a strategic reserve indicate that Russia plans to intensify offensive operations in Ukraine in the near to medium term rather than end the war. Russia may also be building its strategic reserve as part of the Kremlin’s broader preparations for a possible future conflict between Russia and NATO, especially as Russia intensifies its youth military-patriotic programmes aimed at attracting Russian youth to the army in the coming years,” the report said.
Analysts say Russia continues to test the limits of NATO’s air defence capabilities over the Baltic Sea, increasing the frequency of violations of alliance airspace.
On 21 September, two German Eurofighter fighter jets took to the air to intercept a Russian Il-20M military spy plane over the Baltic Sea. The aircraft did not respond to a request to make contact, Germany’s NATO office reported.
“ISW believes that Russia is conducting an aggressive campaign to test NATO’s air defences and political will as part of a broader effort to gather actionable intelligence that Russia could then apply to a potential future conflict against NATO,” the report said.
ISW noted that Russia is reportedly building a strategic reserve of recruits from July 2025. “A Russian insider source, who consistently provides accurate data on changes in the Russian military command, said on September 21 that approximately 292,000 people have signed contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry from the beginning of 2025 until September 15… some of these recruits are joining the strategic reserve that Russia has been forming since the beginning of July 2025. The source did not specify how many recruits are joining the strategic reserve rather than the front line in Ukraine,” the report said.
ISW recently said Russia is making a “multilateral effort” to prepare for a potential future war with NATO and “appears to be getting bolder about the kind of escalation it is prepared to experience.”
In early September, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called an increase in defence spending by alliance countries inevitable as he said the threat from Russia was growing by the day.
The NATO secretary general said in June that Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. He called on the alliance’s member states to radically strengthen their defence capabilities, including increasing NATO’s air and missile defence capabilities by 400 percent, to effectively counter threats from Russia.
Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have repeatedly pointed out that Russian officials appear to be setting the stage for withdrawal from international arms control treaties in preparation for a possible future war with NATO.