Russia and Belarus seem to be creating conditions to justify Russia’s launching drones to strike Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said in its report.
The analysts drew attention to a statement by Belarus Security Council Secretary Alexander Wolfovich, who said on 26 May that Belarusian troops had “recorded” 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the international border with Belarus over the past week. Wolfowicz also claimed that some of the border crossings by Ukrainian drones were deliberate attempts to attack Belarusian border infrastructure.
ISW notes that Russia could use the claimed instances of Ukrainian drones in Belarusian airspace to justify using Belarusian territory to carry out “retaliatory strikes” against Ukraine.
“Belarusian territory would allow Russia to conduct drone strikes against Ukrainian land lines of communication in western and northwestern Ukraine, which Russian drones cannot yet easily hit with accuracy. The ability of Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for strikes could allow Russian drones like ” Shahed “and cheaper drones” zip “to attack the M-06 motorway that runs through western Ukrainian areas, including key supply routes from Poland to Ukraine and the railway linking Poland and Ukraine,” the report said.
Analysts note that Russian forces are already attacking western Ukrainian areas from Russian territory, but the drone launch from Belarus “will allow Russian forces to use remotely piloted drones ” Shahed” and ” Lightning”, which will improve their accuracy and ability to engage moving targets.”
“Wolfowitz’s statements and recent Ukrainian warnings against Belarus indicate that Russia is creating information conditions for further use of Belarus for its own military purposes, in particular for strikes against strategically important facilities in the rear in western Ukraine,” the analysts said.
ISW noted that Wolfowitz’s statements come amid recent warnings by Ukrainian officials that Russia is pressuring Belarus to conduct operations against Ukraine or an unspoken NATO state.
“Belarus is unlikely to launch a ground invasion against Ukraine, and ISW has not independently observed or confirmed any build-up of Belarusian forces on the Belarus-Ukraine border that would be sufficient for a ground invasion. Russia also lacks the reserves necessary to support Belarusian forces during a ground invasion of Ukraine,” the report’s authors said.
Russia and its ally Belarus held nuclear drills last week. Belarus, which borders NATO’s eastern flank, also hosts Oreshnik, Russia’s newest missile system capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
On 19 May, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyy, commenting on the Russian threat from Belarus, said that possible operations in the north were a real possibility.
After these statements, Alexander Lukashenko said that Minsk “will not be dragged” into Russia’s war against Ukraine, but there is a condition – if it is not aggression against the territory of Belarus.
Belarus is not directly involved in the war against Ukraine, but in February 2022, its authorities provided the country’s territory for the passage and deployment of Russian troops, while strikes against Ukraine were launched from the territory of Belarus.