The joint Russian-Belarusian nuclear exercises, which concluded on 21 May, highlighted Russia’s ability to use Belarus for future Russian military operations and to deepen Russia’s de facto control over Belarus, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in a report.
“The exercise with Russian nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus underscores the extent to which Russia has absorbed Belarus under its de facto control. The Belarusian constitution previously stated that Belarus was a non-nuclear state, but the country amended its constitution in 2022, abandoning its neutrality and non-nuclear status, likely under pressure from the Kremlin and its influence over decision-making in Belarus. These exercises reflect the degradation of Belarusian sovereignty and Russia’s growing ability to use Belarus as a springboard for its own military purposes,” the report reads.
18 May, Belarus announced the start of joint nuclear exercises with Russia. Russia announced the start of its exercises on 19 May. On May 21, the last day of these exercises, the Ministries of Defence of Russia and Belarus said that nuclear warheads were delivered to the Belarusian territory as part of nuclear exercises of the two countries’ militaries. The Belarusian Defence Ministry also said that the missile unit simulated missile launches at certain targets.
According to the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty, the parties, unlike other military manoeuvres, have not made public the legend of the exercise. It’s also unknown for what purpose the Belarusian units simulated the launch of missiles.
At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko said that Minsk could be drawn into a war only in one case: “if they commit aggression against us.”
Against the background of Ukrainian intelligence data about Russian planning of offensive operations in the Chernihiv-Kiev direction, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced an increase of the Defence Forces in this area.
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kiev was recording Moscow’s attempts to draw Belarus more into the war against Ukraine.
“We know that additional contacts have taken place between the Russians and Alexander Lukashenko, which are aimed at persuading him to join new Russian aggressive operations… Ukraine possesses details of the conversation between Russia and Belarus,” Zelensky said after a meeting with the military.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyy, commenting on the Russian threat from Belarus, said that possible operations in the north are a real possibility.
Alexander Lukashenko’s regime regularly conducts exercises and training camps against the backdrop of worsening relations with the West and Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, in which official Minsk supports the Kremlin.
Belarus is not directly involved in the war against Ukraine, but in February 2022, its authorities provided the country’s territory for the passage and deployment of Russian troops, while strikes against Ukraine were launched from Belarus.