The Russian Defence Ministry continues to artificially inflate the advance of its troops in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in a report.
The analysts drew attention to a statement by the Russian ministry that claimed Russian troops had captured at least 4,714 square kilometres between January 1 and September 25, 2025: 205 square kilometres in the Luhansk region; 3,308 square kilometres in the Donetsk region; 261 square kilometres in the Zaporizhzhya region; 175 square kilometres in the Dnipropetrovsk region; 542 square kilometres in the Kharkiv region; and 223 square kilometres in the Sumy region.
The Russian Defence Ministry claimed that Russian forces captured 205 settlements in Ukraine during this period.
Instead, ISW says it has obtained evidence to estimate that Russian forces have captured 3,434 square kilometres since January 1. “ISW estimates that the Russian Defence Ministry overstates reported advances by 36 percent in the Luhansk region; 33 percent in the Donetsk region; five percent in the Zaporizhzhya region; 83 percent in the Dnipropetrovsk region; 112 percent in the Kharkiv region; and six percent in the Sumy region,” the report says.
The Institute for the Study of War notes that the Russian Defence Ministry often overstates its territorial claims in order to shape Western perceptions of Russia’s military capabilities and prospects for victory.
“The Russian Defence Ministry’s 25 September statements are a continuation of this effort to use large amounts of false data to create the impression that Russian forces are advancing at a rapid pace on the battlefield, even though they have a slow pace,” the report says.
The ISW also claims that the Russian Defence Ministry is using videos of Russian soldiers holding flags in certain localities to claim that the localities have been captured.
“However, Russian videos only show small groups infiltrating areas where Russian troops cannot secure strong positions. The Kremlin is trying to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its initial military objectives on the battlefield in order to force Ukraine and its partners to give in to Russian demands,” analysts said.
US President Donald Trump, after meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York, delivered an unprecedentedly harsh criticism of Russia, which he called a “paper tiger”, and said Ukraine, with the help of the EU, had the ability to reclaim all territories occupied by Russian forces.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the US president’s critical remarks and also the comparison with a “paper tiger”. He expressed the opinion that Trump’s words are primarily driven by US business interests, in particular the desire to sell more oil and gas, and also suggested that his position could have been influenced by his meeting with Zelensky.
In addition, Peskov called Trump’s statements about Ukraine’s ability to reclaim territory “false”.
US Vice President J.D. Vance said Trump is becoming incredibly impatient with Russia because he believes it is not doing enough to end the war.
“This is not a change of position. It’s a recognition of the reality on the ground,” Vance added when asked why there has been a change in Trump’s position on the war in Ukraine.