The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world economy as of the end of May 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, as well as leading national statistical offices (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Interfax-Ukraine Marketing and Development Director Maksym urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical centre, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
The first five months of 2025 showed a restrained recovery amid high uncertainty. According to the preliminary estimate of the State Statistics Committee, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in 1Q 2025 (seasonally adjusted: -0.3% q/q), reflecting vulnerable but still positive dynamics of domestic demand and business adaptation to the military environment.
Inflationary pressures intensified in May, with annual inflation accelerating to 15.9% (m/m: +1.3%), mainly due to a jump in food prices and the impact of energy factors. The NBU explicitly pointed to seasonal and propositional factors and at the same time expects the pace to soften in the summer months.
Against this backdrop, the NBU board consistently maintained the discount rate at 15.5 per cent p.a. in March, April and June, emphasising the priority of anchoring inflation expectations and exchange rate stability.
Foreign trade in goods remained in deep deficit in January-April: exports totalled $15.8bn, imports $29.3bn, with a negative balance of about $13.4bn. Over the same period, exports of services totalled $12.7bn and imports $7.4bn. Structurally, imports are dominated by fuel, machinery and transport, while merchandise exports are concentrated in commodity groups.
Despite the trade gap, international reserves reached historically high levels at the end of May – $44.5bn as of 1 June 2025 (thanks to official receipts and NBU operations).
At the same time, the debt burden is high: total public and guaranteed debt as of 31 May 2025 is $180.97bn (UAH 7.52 trillion).
“The current macro dynamics is rather like driving with a slightly tightened handbrake: the economy is capable of driving, but without acceleration. The positive is that we are holding growth and inflation is gradually being pinned down. The negative is the sources of this balance: reserves and external injections are replacing investment and export earnings. If we do not turn record reserves and access to international programmes into investment impetus in production, energy and logistics in the summer, we will have to put out not price fires but structural fires in autumn,” Maxim urakin said.
The expert also emphasises the quality of demand. According to URAKIN, consumption is reviving, but it is fragile and uneven – the IT sector, services and part of trade are holding it up. Industry without extensive infrastructure repairs, cheap long money and access to ports is like a motor at minimum speed.
“Add energy risks during peak periods and we get an economy that needs not a single injection, but systemic therapy: war risk insurance for investors, fast windows for equipment imports, duty-free corridors for exporters and large-scale public-private partnership projects. Otherwise, we will mothball the trade deficit and dependence on external financing,” the economist emphasised.
Global economy
The global picture at the end of May 2025 remains mixed. The IMF in its April WEO forecasts global economic growth of around 2.8 per cent in 2025, with inflation falling thereafter, but with risks from geopolitics and trade protectionism remaining.
The US, after overheating in 2024, had negative GDP momentum in Q1 2025: the BEA’s second estimate of a 0.3% annualised contraction due to a surge in imports and reduced government spending; domestic final demand remained resilient. PCE core inflation held near 2.6% y/y in May, and the Fed kept the rate range at 4.5-4.75% at its 1 May meeting (it extended its moderate easing cycle in June).
China posted official GDP growth of 5.4% y/y (1.2% q/q) in Q1, supported by manufacturing, transport and IT services; however, the property sector remains a drag.
The European economy is gradually emerging from stagnation. The European Commission in its spring forecast expects GDP growth of 1.1% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area in 2025; inflation is converging towards the ECB target. The first quarter provided positive momentum: eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% QoQ.
UK was a pleasant surprise for the G7: +0.7% QoQ in Q1, and Bank of England cut rate to 4.5% on 8 May, maintaining cautious rhetoric due to inflation risks.
Turkey maintains a mix of growth and high inflation: Q1 2025 GDP grew 5.7% y/y and inflation was 35.4% y/y in May despite tight monetary policy.
India’s momentum remains strong: according to official data, real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y in Q4 of fiscal year 2024/25 (Jan-March 2025); for the full fiscal, the government estimates growth of around 6.5-6.9%