US intelligence agencies are studying how Iran would react if US President Donald Trump declares a unilateral victory in the two-month-old war, two US officials and a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.
The intelligence community is analysing the issue along with others at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump’s potential withdrawal from a conflict that some officials and advisers believe could contribute to deep Republican losses in midterm elections later this year, the sources said.
While a decision has yet to be made – and Trump could easily step up military operations – a quick de-escalation could ease political pressure on the president, even if it could leave behind a resurgent Iran that could eventually restart its nuclear programmes and threaten U.S. allies in the region, Reuters noted.
It is unclear when the intelligence community will complete its work, but it has previously analysed the likely reaction of Iran’s leaders to the US declaration of Victory.
In the days after the first bombing in February, the intelligence community estimated that if Trump declared victory and the U.S. reduced its troops in the region, Iran would likely see it as a victory, one source said.
If Trump instead says the U.S. has won a victory but maintains a significant military presence, Iran would likely see that as a negotiating tactic but not something that would necessarily lead to the end of the war, the source said.
The CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
White House spokeswoman Anne Kelly said the U.S. was still engaging with the Iranians about the talks and “will not rush into a bad deal.”
“The president will only make an agreement that puts U.S. national security first, and he has made clear that Iran can never possess nuclear weapons,” she said.
The Axios publication, citing three sources, among them a USA official, reported that Iran had proposed a new way to end the conflict. The proposal reportedly called for opening the Strait of Hormuz while the sides postpone talks on Iran’s nuclear capabilities to a later date. Tehran has not confirmed the report.
Trump has expressed considerable dissatisfaction with Tehran’s latest proposal because it does not address the complexities of Iran’s nuclear programme.