Gas prices declined last week. TTF futures fell to around 32 EUR/MWh. Gas inventories continue to grow, geopolitical risks did not create a new shock for a short period of time. Stable gas supplies from Norway and high LNG imports have offset some of the problems.
At the same time, the energy landscape shuddered with several strategic moves: Centrica and ECP (Energy Capital Partners) buying Europe’s largest LNG terminal Isle of Grain for around €1.5bn – this sent a clear signal to the market about the long-term dependence on imported gas, even with falling demand for its use in the power sector. Centrica has also signed an agreement with US-based Devon Energy to supply the equivalent of five LNG cargoes annually for a decade – another foundation that lays Europe’s energy security.
Month-ahead contracts at all hubs analysed had a different trend relative to spot prices – up 1.64% on average. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 4.68%. Season-ahead prices with an average of EUR 35.50/MWh tended to be higher than spot prices by an average of 5.77%.
September Asian LNG futures, the Jkm Platts Future index, settled at US$426.38/MWh on 14 August. LNG futures for LNG delivered to North West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at US$393.80/ tcf. LNG North West Europe Marker closed at USD 393.80 / tis cu m.
European LNG receiving terminals operated at an average capacity of 79.81% on 13 August.
EU LNG stocks as of 13 August 2025 stood at 4.336 million cubic metres, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
Storage fill levels in the largest LNG exporter, the US, stood at 3.186 Bcf as of 8 August 2025, 6.6% above the five-year average, according to the latest EIA data.
Oil prices have fallen this week – Brent, for example, is trading between $66-67/bbl. OPEC + announced a significant increase in production (more than 500 thousand barrels per day since September), and the imbalance between supply and demand is beginning to flatten amid the gradual end of the peak supply season.
Trump and Putin’s meeting in Alaska is straining the market. If sanctions against Russia ease, prices could move downwards – even to below $60 per barrel. But, if the opposite situation escalates, prices could jump up, approaching or even surpassing $80-90 per barrel.
Interesting for the week
For the first time, a €500m loan for Ukraine’s gas imports is guaranteed by the European Union under the UIF Hi-Bar programme, which does not require a Ukrainian state guarantee, Gas United said. The UIF-Ukraine Investment Framework is the investment component of the Ukraine Facility programme to rebuild, in particular, the energy infrastructure. Financing was launched at URC-2024 in Berlin. The EBRD’s Hi-Bar Facility for gas imports aims to remove barriers to mobilising the finance needed to accelerate the energy sector’s transition to net-zero, which involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible