The rise in global oil prices has already led to a noticeable rise in the price of aviation paraffin, and this increases the pressure on airlines and may affect the cost of tickets in the summer tourist season. This conclusion was reached in the analytical commentary of Experts Club. Amid the escalation in the Middle East, Brent rose to $108.56 per barrel on 18 March, and a day earlier it exceeded the $100 per barrel mark.
According to IATA, the global average price of jet fuel for the last reporting week rose by 11.2 per cent compared to the previous week and reached $175 per barrel. At the same time, back in its December forecast IATA came out of the average price of avgas for 2026 at $88 per barrel for Brent at $62, which means that the current market is already more than double the industry’s base case scenario.
The U.S. market provides an additional indicator: according to AP, the average price of jet fuel in the U.S. rose to $3.99 per gallon, up from about $2.50 a fortnight ago. Reuters also notes that in the U.S., jet fuel prices have increased by more than 50 per cent, and in Europe, some airlines have already started adjusting schedules and fares due to the rising fuel prices.
As Experts Club analysts note, the market logic is obvious: jet fuel remains one of the largest cost items for air carriers along with personnel, so a sharp rise in the price of paraffin will almost inevitably be translated into the price of flights, especially on long-haul and holiday destinations. IATA explicitly points out that jet fuel is one of the biggest cost items for airlines, with AP estimating that the share of fuel in carriers’ costs is around 20-25 per cent.
“What we are seeing is no longer just the rise of oil as an exchange-traded asset, but a direct transmission of the price shock into jet fuel. If oil stays above $100 a barrel and paraffin stays at extremely high levels, airlines will be forced to either raise fares or cut some of their travel programmes. For the tourist market, this means a more expensive and less predictable summer season,” said Maxim Urakin, founder of Experts Club, PhD in Economics.
According to him, mass tourist routes, where carriers operate with thin margins and high price sensitivity of demand, are particularly vulnerable. “Even if the rise in ticket prices is uneven, the very factor of expensive fuel changes market behaviour: tour operators are more cautious in forming packages, airlines are reviewing the flight grid, and tourists postpone purchases or choose shorter trips. In such a situation, summer 2026 may become a season of high volatility – both in terms of prices and utilisation of destinations,” said Urakin.
Practical signals of this process have already emerged. Reuters reported that SAS decided to cancel about 1 thousand flights in April amid a sharp rise in fuel prices, and AP writes that a number of international airlines have already introduced fuel surcharges or increased base fares. This means that if the current situation persists, the rise in airfares may become one of the key factors of pressure on the global tourism market in the coming summer season.