NAEK Energoatom JSC will have profitable operations under all three scenarios during 2025-2028, with profit in 2028 forecasted to be twice as high as in 2026-2027, due, in particular, to the expected increase in electricity prices.
This forecast is contained in the annual information on fiscal risks, prepared by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine on the data of 12 state-owned companies within the framework of the adoption of the state budget-2026. within the document for each company on the basis of macroeconomic scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian economy modelled base, alternative and negative scenarios.
“Net revenues from NAEK Energoatom to the state budget are expected under all scenarios and will grow as the profitability of the company increases,” the document says.
As its authors noted, NAEK plans to build new power units in the long term and has plans in the medium term to raise sufficient debt funds to finance investments. However, construction will continue beyond the medium term and if such construction is financed with debt, it is expected that high costs will raise the company’s liabilities to levels it may not be able to service.
Fiscal risks could materialise if the government were to provide financing to cover part of such costs, or if the government were to have to service Energoatom’s debts,” the Finance Ministry summarised.
Under the baseline scenario, Energoatom’s capital expenditures will average about UAH 59bn per year from 2025 without budget funding, with the cost of the SIG to compensate for tariffs for households falling by an average of 2.3% between 2026 and 2028.
In addition, the baseline scenario provides for an average 7.9 per cent annual growth in electricity prices, as well as a slight decrease in the volume of electricity production by the company in 2026-2027 with a subsequent increase in 2028.
As recalled in the Ministry of Finance, NAEK received a net profit of UAH 1.3bn in 2024, compared to a loss of UAH 11.3bn in 2023. The company posted a 35% increase in revenues last year due to a 33.5% increase in the weighted average price of electricity/electricity.
According to the results of 2024, Energoatom’s SOA amounted to UAH 109.3bn, or 53% of the company’s net income for that year.