Russian leader Vladimir Putin continued to threaten Europe as part of the Kremlin’s multifaceted information efforts to deter the West from responding to Russia’s hostile actions, writes the US-based Institute for the Study of War. The ISW analysed Putin’s speech at the Valdai Club on October 2.
“Putin attempts to dissuade European NATO members from bolstering their defences and providing military support to Ukraine, which are at odds with Russia’s strategic goals, arguing that Russia is a threat to Europe only as long as Europe resists Putin’s goals,” the report said.
ISW noted that Putin’s rhetoric came amid Russia’s desire to “sow discord and fear in Europe” through hybrid operations, particularly in Poland, Germany and Lithuania.
“The Valdai Club has served as a useful tool in the Kremlin’s years-long effort to influence Western policy in Russia’s favour. Putin likely intended to use his speech at this meeting to ensure that his rhetoric, particularly that directed at Europe, reached a wider audience and achieved the desired effect: persuading the West not to support Ukraine and not to defend itself against Russia,” the report said.
Analysts also point out that Putin tried to dissuade the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by downplaying their effectiveness and “indirectly threatening the United States.”
Putin said that supplying U.S. long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would lead to “a whole new level of escalation,” particularly in relations between Moscow and Washington. Putin also downplayed the significance of these missiles, calling them” not quite state-of-the-art,” and noted that providing these missiles to Ukraine “will not change the balance of power on the battlefield.”
ISW, meanwhile, emphasised that Ukraine has an operational need to hit important military infrastructure behind Russia’s lines.
In addition, the Institute for the Study of War said that Putin is trying to exaggerate Russian gains in Ukraine to support the Kremlin’s false narrative that Russia’s victory in Ukraine is inevitable: “On 2 October, Putin said that Russian forces had captured two-thirds of Kupyansk. ISW estimates that as of October 2, Russian forces had captured only 14 percent of Kupyansk, and that Putin is exaggerating Russian gains.”
“Putin is trying to convince the United States, Europe, and Ukraine that Russia will inevitably achieve its military objectives militarily, so Ukraine should give in to Russian demands and the West should end its support for Ukraine,” ISW noted.
Putin said the previous day that Moscow would react quickly if it thought Europe was provoking it, and said that almost the entire NATO alliance was now at war against Russia through Ukraine. He stressed, however, that the process of militarisation of Europe is gaining momentum.
“The FRG, for example, is saying that the German army should be the most powerful in Europe again. Well, well, we are listening to this carefully, seeing what is meant. I think there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that retaliatory measures from Russia will not be long in coming,” Putin said, noting that the response to the threat “will be very convincing.”
“Exactly the response. We ourselves have never initiated a military confrontation,” the Russian president added.