The crypto market ends 2025 noticeably weaker than most traditional asset classes. According to Fixygen estimates, Bitcoin declined by 5.75%, Ethereum – by 11.58%, and the altcoin sector in general dropped by 42.27%.
At the finish of December, the market remained in a low liquidity and consolidation mode, with BTC and ETH quotes fluctuating around $88k and around $3k respectively.
The key story for 2025 is strong growth to autumn highs followed by a sharp correction. Fixygen noted that the fall was amplified by derivatives and forced closing of short positions of about $19bn. Fixygen in November, Fixygen analysts estimated that the cryptocurrency market lost more than $1 trillion in capitalisation amid profit taking, deteriorating risk appetite and outflows from exchange-traded funds. Fixygen
The end of the year was marked by a thin market and the impact of major derivative willow events, with Fixygen pointing to the effect of low holiday liquidity and discussion of a large Deribit options expiration as a potential trigger for short-term volatility. Open4Business
Trends for 2025
1. Crypto is increasingly trading more strongly as a reactive along with the macro agenda. This has manifested itself in particular due to sensitivity to rate expectations and general market sentiment, as well as participant talk of flows into ETFs.
2. Rotation within the market: after overheating, capital sought out more stable segments. Separately, the tokenisation of real assets and the growth of infrastructure around RWAs and stablecoins stood out: according to RWA.XYZ, the combined value of RWAs toned down on public blockchains is around $19.17bn and the stablecoin market is around $298bn.
3.Regulation has become part of the investment risk and part of the industry’s “legitimisation”: 2025 brought notable regulatory changes and increased focus on compounding in different regions.
The near future: a baseline scenario and a crossroads
The baseline scenario for early 2026 is a continuation of consolidation after a volatile autumn, with the market digesting the correction and dynamics remaining largely dependent on the microphone, capital flows and news agenda.
The next fork is simple. Positive scenario – return of sustainable demand from large investors and recovery of risk appetite, which usually supports BTC and then triggers a selective “second wave” in liquid altcoins. Negative scenario – a new wave of risk-off (via rates, geopolitics or regulatory surprises), in which altcoins, as the riskiest segment has already been seen in 2025, feel the pressure the most.