The week for the crypto market was uneven and nervous. In the middle of the week, bitcoin managed to return to the $70,000 mark on the back of a short-term improvement in global risk sentiment after news of a pause in possible escalation around Iran, but by the end of the week, the momentum weakened and the market went down again. As of 27 March, bitcoin was trading around $66.2k, while etherium was trading around $1,987.
Geopolitics remained the main external driver. At the beginning of the week, the market revived after the reports about the transfer of US strikes on Iranian infrastructure: bitcoin rose above $70 thousand, and at some point tested the zone around $71.7 thousand. But then this relief rally began to run out, as the market returned to the basic question – how sustainable is the reduction of tension and whether oil will not return to growth.
The second major factor of the week was the US regulatory agenda. Citigroup lowered its 12-month targets for bitcoin and ether as early as last week, directly linking this to the stalled crypto legislation in the US. In parallel, the market negatively perceived the news regarding the Clarity Act compromise, which discusses the prohibition of yields on balances in stablecoins: against this backdrop, Circle and Coinbase shares fell heavily, while the topic itself once again reminded the market that the “regulatory bullish scenario” has not yet been realised.
Technically, the week showed that the $70k level remains a struggle zone for bitcoin rather than a stable support. A number of market reports indicated that a return above this mark was not confirmed by strong volume, and by the end of the week traders’ attention shifted to the big expiry of $18.6bn options. At the same time, the decline in BTC supply on exchanges to a seven-year low, which is usually interpreted as a signal of a long-term holding of coins, rather than an immediate sale, looked like a separate positive.
Ethereum had a weaker week than bitcoin. ETH participated in the rebound along with the rest of the market, but the pressure on it remains stronger: Citi separately noted weak user activity on the network and a more modest set of potential catalysts compared to BTC. Against the backdrop of the current price below $2k, this makes ether more sensitive to any new deterioration in risk appetite.
If we summarise the week in FIXYGEN logic, the picture looks like this: the market remains vibrant, liquid and ready for quick rebounds, but does not yet have one strong driver of its own. It continues to trade as a mix of risk assets and macro hedges, reacting less to domestic crypto news than to oil, the dollar, the Fed and headlines from the Middle East.
Fixygen’s brief forecast for the coming days is as follows. – For bitcoin, the key zone remains the $65-72k range. As long as the market stays above the middle of this corridor, the consolidation scenario with attempts to re-attack $70-71k remains. If geopolitics worsens again or the dollar continues to strengthen, the market could easily return to a more severe correction. This conclusion-analytical, based on current prices, market behaviour during the week and external news background.
For Ethereum, the near-term outlook looks more cautious. Without a clear shift in US regulatory policy and a recovery in broader risk-on sentiment, ETH is likely to continue to move weaker than bitcoin. In a positive scenario, ether has the potential to quickly return to above $2k, but it remains a more vulnerable asset than BTC in the short term. This is also an analytical conclusion based on the current ETH price, weekly momentum and Citi’s assessment of weaker fundamental momentum for the network.