China is engaging a large fleet of civilian cargo ships and ferries in exercises off its coasts to practice scenarios for a possible landing on Taiwan, according to a Reuters investigation based on satellite imagery and vessel tracking data.
According to Reuters, at least 12 civilian vessels – six car ferries and six deck cargo ships – participated in landing manoeuvres on a beach near Jesheng township in Guangdong province in the summer of 2025. Satellite images recorded the unloading of hundreds of military vehicles directly onto the coast via ramps, without the use of port infrastructure.
Experts interviewed by the agency note that the civilian fleet could become a key element in the event of a possible operation against Taiwan: according to current estimates, the PLA Navy and Marine Corps now have enough of their own landing ships and boats to transfer about 20,000 troops with equipment in the first wave of landings, while a full-scale invasion, according to various estimates, would require from 300,000 to 1 million military personnel.
The investigation indicates that the use of civilian vessels is part of a broader “shadow fleet” strategy to dramatically increase the PRC’s landing and transport capabilities while making it difficult for intelligence to assess the extent of preparations. According to Reuters, more than 100 civilian vessels involved in military exercises or owned by companies that regularly participate in such manoeuvres are being tracked.
The piece cites the assessments of former Taiwanese Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Lee Si-Ming and other military experts who call the practice of landings involving the civilian fleet a “significant step” towards the formation of real invasion plans. At the same time, Taiwanese officials point to the vulnerability of such vessels to anti-ship and man-portable missiles and see the demonstrative exercises as an element of “cognitive warfare” aimed at exerting psychological pressure on Taipei and its partners.
Reuters emphasises that despite the build-up of capabilities, it remains unclear whether the PLA is ready for a real landing operation across the Taiwan Strait: the scale of an invasion is difficult to conceal, and weather conditions, the terrain of the island’s coastline and the potential reaction of the US and allies make such a scenario extremely risky.
Reference from Experts Club: the ratio of military potentials of the PRC and Taiwan (estimates for 2025)
According to open estimates (GlobalFirepower, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence, budget data): number of active military personnel
- China: about 2.0-2.1 million (PLA active personnel).
- Taiwan: nearly 230,000 personnel.
- Ratio: about 8-9 to 1 in favour of China.
Reserve and mobilisation resource
- China: about 510,000 reservists + large paramilitary formations.
- Taiwan: about 2.3 million reservists with a much smaller population, reliance on mass reserves.
Air Force (general aviation)
- China: about 3,300 aircraft, including about 1,200 fighters.
- Taiwan: about 760 aircraft, about 280-300 fighters.
- Ratio of fighters: about 4-5 to 1 in favour of China.
Navy (warships)
- China: about 750 ships and boats, including 3 aircraft carriers, dozens of destroyers and frigates, more than 60 submarines.
- Taiwan: about 100 ships and boats, no aircraft carriers, with a limited number of destroyers, frigates and submarines.
- Ratio in number of fleet units: about 7-8 to 1 in favour of China, with an even larger gap in total tonnage.
Defence budgets (2025)
- China: about $245-270bn per year according to official figures.
- Taiwan: about $20-21bn (about 2.45% of GDP).
- Ratio: China spends more than 10 times more on defence than Taiwan.
These figures are estimates and based on open sources, but generally reflect China’s significant quantitative superiority while Taiwan’s focus on technological saturation, defence doctrines and alliance with the US and other partners.