Global primary nickel production in 2025 will increase by 5.9% to 3.735 million tonnes, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) forecasts.
At the end of 2024, it was up 11.1% to 3.526 million tonnes.
These estimates do not take into account the possibility of any disruption to operations, INSG said in a statement.
Indonesia is expected to continue to ramp up production of various nickel products, including nickel-containing pig iron (NPI). In China, nickel output is forecast to increase this year due to higher output of nickel cathode and nickel sulphate, with production of (NPI) further declining.
In other countries, mainly due to profitability issues, a number of production plants have been mothballed, reduced output or are considering one of these options in the future, INSG said.
The rate of growth in the use of nickel in batteries for electric vehicles has been weaker than expected, in particular due to competition from other types of batteries (mainly lithium-iron-phosphate), the organisation’s analysts said.
Global primary nickel consumption this year is expected to increase by 5.7% to 3.537 million tonnes. Last year it increased by 4.8% to 3.347 million tonnes.
Thus, the global nickel market will remain in surplus. The surplus of metal in 2023 is 170 thousand tonnes, in 2024 – 179 thousand tonnes, and by the end of 2025, production will exceed demand by 198 thousand tonnes, according to INSG estimates.
INSG is an independent intergovernmental organisation that was founded in 1990 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal. The group’s members are nickel producing and consuming countries: Australia, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Cuba, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.