According to a Serbian economist, an unusual price paradox has emerged in the property market of neighbouring Bulgaria: in Varna and Plovdiv, prices for existing homes are rising sharply, whilst prices for new-build properties have fallen.
According to data from the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria, in the fourth quarter of 2025, house prices in the country rose by 12.6% compared with the same period the previous year. However, compared with the third quarter, growth has almost stalled, amounting to just 0.3%.
The main imbalance is evident between new-build properties and the secondary market. Nationwide, existing homes rose in price by 15% year-on-year, whilst new-builds rose by 9%.
In Varna, the gap was particularly pronounced: the overall price index rose by 15.1%, but new-build properties fell in price by 1%, whilst the secondary market rose by 23.4%. In Plovdiv, the overall increase was 8.6%, new-build properties fell in price by 0.8%, and the secondary market rose by 16.8%.
The reason for this paradox is a shortage of ready-to-move-in flats. Buyers who need a home immediately are turning more actively to the secondary market. Against a backdrop of limited supply, this is driving up prices for ready-to-move-in flats. On the other hand, new-builds are facing more cautious demand, uncertainty over completion dates and project-related risks.
A similar, though less pronounced, gap is also evident in other cities. In Sofia, secondary housing prices rose by 14%, whilst new-builds increased by 11.3%. In Burgas, the secondary housing stock rose by 17.6%, whilst new-builds increased by 7.3%. In Stara Zagora, secondary housing rose by 23.3%, whilst new-builds increased by 10.5%.
For investors and buyers, this is an important signal: the Bulgarian market is not falling, but is becoming more selective. Buyers are willing to pay a premium for a ready-to-move-in flat in a good location, but are now more cautious about properties under construction.
For the market, this signifies a shift from frenzied growth to a more subdued phase.