Global prediction markets continue to grow rapidly and are becoming one of the most prominent segments at the intersection of cryptocurrencies, trading and sports betting. During the first weekend of the new NFL season, the total trading volume on the largest prediction markets reached at least $5.83 billion, according to data from Aldrin Research cited by Barron’s.
The bulk of the turnover was accounted for by the US-regulated platform Kalshi — around $4.89 billion over the weekend.
On Sunday alone, the total volume across prediction markets stood at approximately $3.12 billion, whilst Kalshi set its own daily record of $2.433 billion.
On the Polymarket blockchain platform, trading volume on Sunday stood at around $404 million.
Sporting events were the main driver of growth. According to researchers’ estimates, around 91 per cent of activity over the weekend was linked to sport and combination contracts.
At the same time, prediction markets are gradually expanding far beyond elections and sporting events. Contracts relating to interest rates, inflation, commodity prices, cryptocurrencies and macroeconomic indicators are already being actively traded on the platforms.
The European regulator ESMA has drawn attention to the sector’s growth. In July, the agency noted that some event contracts may fall under existing restrictions on binary options, whilst some products may also be regarded by national regulators as bets.
In its September risk review, ESMA also highlighted potential issues relating to the manipulation of prediction markets and the use of insider information.
Thus, prediction markets are following a path similar to that of the early cryptocurrency market: rapid growth in trading volumes is gradually attracting the attention of traditional financial regulators.