The cryptocurrency market ended the past week largely on a positive note: Bitcoin recovered from its early August dip and once again tested the $65,000 mark, whilst Ethereum and most of the major altcoins also gained ground. The exception among the leading cryptocurrencies was XRP, which lost around 5 per cent over the week.
On the morning of 10 August, Bitcoin was trading at around $65,200, having risen by approximately 3.7% over the past seven days, according to CoinDesk data. On Monday, the price dipped below $65,000 again – to around $64,500–$64,700. As early as 7 August, BTC was showing a weekly gain of 3.1%, heading for its first weekly gain in three weeks.
Ethereum was trading around $1,900 at the start of the new week and also ended the week with a gain. BNB and Solana were in positive territory, whilst XRP lagged behind the broader market recovery and lost around 5%.
One of the key supporting factors was the return of institutional demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $853.54 million over the past week, marking the strongest weekly performance since mid-April. A significant portion of these funds went to BlackRock’s IBIT fund.
The combined net inflow into US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for the week is estimated at approximately $1.1 billion. Back in early August, the situation was the opposite: the previous week had seen Bitcoin ETFs end with a small net outflow, so the return of major buyers has been one of the key shifts in the market landscape.
US macroeconomic data provided further support for cryptocurrencies. Weak US labour market figures eased concerns about a possible further rise in Fed interest rates and bolstered demand for risk assets. Following the release of the data, Bitcoin rose to $65,000, whilst US stock indices ended the week on a strong note.
However, it is still too early to speak of a full-fledged return to a sustained bullish trend. Bitcoin remains close to the $62,000–$65,000 range, within which it has spent much of the last few weeks. Analysts note that a break above the $65,000 level is needed to confirm a more sustained market recovery.
Another sign of caution is the extremely low realised volatility. Last Saturday, BTC’s trading range was just around $350 – the narrowest Saturday range since November 2023. At the same time, there remains elevated demand in the options market for protection against a fall in the $62,000–$63,000 range, indicating ongoing concerns amongst market participants.
News of the sale of bitcoins by Strategy, the largest corporate holder, also acted as a headwind. The company announced on 10 August that it had sold 1,690 BTC for approximately $108.6 million over the previous week, using the proceeds, in particular, to repurchase preference shares. Its holdings have fallen to 840,447 BTC.
Regulatory factors, by contrast, are likely to take a back seat by the end of August. The US Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act before Congress’s August recess began. Lawmakers are not expected to resume consideration of comprehensive regulations for the digital asset market until mid-September at the earliest.
What will drive the market until the end of August
The first major test will be the US inflation figures. The US Consumer Price Index for July is due to be published on 12 August, the Producer Price Index on 13 August, and retail sales figures on 14 August. Following the weak employment figures, it is the inflation figures that may shape expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy and, consequently, the direction of Bitcoin and other risky assets.
The next key date will be 19 August, when the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on 28–29 July. Investors will be looking for further signals in the minutes regarding the extent to which the regulator is concerned about the combination of elevated inflation and a weakening labour market.
The final week of August will be even busier. On 26 August, the US will simultaneously release the second estimate of second-quarter GDP and the July statistics on household income and expenditure, including the PCE price index – one of the Fed’s key inflation benchmarks.
From 27 to 29 August, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s annual symposium will take place in Jackson Hole. In 2026, the theme is directly linked to financial markets: ‘Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy’. Therefore, statements by central bank governors may be of particular significance for the cryptocurrency sector as well.
Two main scenarios can be identified for the market by the end of August. Provided there is a continued inflow of capital into ETFs, more moderate inflation in the US and continued expectations of a neutral or more accommodative Fed policy, Bitcoin will have the opportunity to consolidate above 65,000 and attempt to return to July’s levels above 66,000 dollars. This is a conclusion drawn from the current market structure, rather than a guaranteed price forecast.
The negative scenario is primarily linked to an unexpected acceleration in US inflation, rising bond yields and a renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions