Photo credit: Getty Images/BBC
Russia isn’t waiting for winter – it is already trying to turn it into a weapon, according to Western media reports.
Moscow is stepping up its attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector and civilian infrastructure. The aim is to leave cities without electricity, heating or water, to frighten people and force them to flee.
Western publications warn that Russia’s new campaign could well prove to be one of the most gruelling of the entire war.
A thousand missiles, aerial bombs and drones
The New York Times reports on a document that Ukraine’s Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal showed to European partners in Paris two weeks ago.
According to the newspaper’s sources, Shmyhal described this document as a Russian plan aimed at bringing about the collapse of the Ukrainian power grid through systematic strikes. The campaign is said to involve the use of up to 1,000 missiles, drones and aerial bombs.
Potential targets include substations, hydroelectric and thermal power stations, boiler houses, as well as water supply and sewerage facilities.
The most dangerous part of the plan is the attempt to disable three Ukrainian nuclear power stations. To achieve this, Russia may target the distribution substations through which the nuclear power stations are connected to the wider power grid.
These are open-air substations located less than 1.6 kilometres from the reactors.
The document also specifically mentions pumping stations and sewage treatment plants. Russia could launch strikes against these using dozens of ballistic missiles fitted with cluster warheads. The publication points out that the Russians have not previously attacked such facilities on a large scale.
Ukrainian officials say, off the record, that the country lacks sufficient contingency plans in the event of serious water supply disruptions.
Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are named as the main targets. The document states that electricity supplies to these cities could be reduced by 90 per cent. Heating supplies could also be cut by up to 90 per cent. Serious problems with the sewerage system may arise.
At the same time, according to assessments by Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies, Lviv is also on the list of cities that may come under intensified attack this winter, reports the Financial Times.
The Ukrainian authorities believe that the ultimate aim is to simultaneously deprive major cities of electricity, heating and water, thereby creating a humanitarian crisis.
Commenting on the document to the Ukrainian media, Denys Shmyhal stated: “Our partners, like us, were struck by its cynicism, this cold, terrorist calculation.”
The New York Times notes that the document’s content aligns with Vladimir Putin’s public statements regarding his intention to strike at Ukraine’s energy sector this winter in response to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries.
Kyiv is already under heavy attack
Judging by recent events, Moscow has not waited for the severe cold weather to set in.
As the New York Times reports, on 1 October alone, Russian missiles and drones struck a large thermal power station and other energy facilities.
Explosions were heard in Kyiv. Several districts were left without electricity and water.
For Ukraine, this is a particularly alarming sign following last winter. According to DTEK, residents of Kyiv regularly endured power cuts lasting 12 hours a day, and sometimes even longer.
Over the years of the war, Ukraine’s power grid has been severely weakened. Olena Pavlenko, head of the DiXi Group’s energy analysis centre, compared its condition to that of a person trying to ‘run a marathon with only one lung’.
Ukraine is trying to prepare for new attacks: it is repairing power stations and substations, installing small gas turbines, building protective structures and strengthening the grid.
Photo credit: Getty Images
In August, Minister Shmyhal told parliament that Ukraine was well prepared for winter. At that time, the country had around 15 gigawatts of available capacity. By the end of the year, he said, this figure was set to rise to more than 21 megawatts.
This is sufficient to cover peak demand, which reached approximately 18 gigawatts last winter.
However, according to Maria Tsaturyan of the Ukraine Facility Platform research group, just a few more strikes could be enough to destroy a significant portion of what has been restored.
She added that the system’s vulnerability was also evident from the outage following the strike on 30 September.
Not just the energy sector
The Economist believes this is part of a broader campaign.
At the same time, Russia is stepping up pressure on Kyiv’s civilian infrastructure.
Over the past week, Russian attacks have targeted supermarkets, car dealerships, children’s playgrounds, a hospital and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Two Ukrainian officials told The Economist that Moscow is acting on several fronts simultaneously. It is carrying out strikes, conducting acts of sabotage and attempting to create political chaos.
One of the officials stated: “Putin has ordered attacks on all civilian targets. They want people to be afraid to go to the supermarket.”
Ukrainian security services are also warning of a possible increase in sabotage operations within the country.
Ukrainian counter-intelligence claims that it foils seven or eight Russian operations every week.
There is also a third component – the information aspect.
Andriy Kovalenko, the former head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation, says that Moscow is hoping to provoke protests and push people to demand surrender.
“The Russians draw up such plans every year. But they are hoping in vain that their propaganda will force our people to protest and demand surrender,” he believes.
Zelenskyy: “There are no rules now”
The Financial Times adds another detail to this picture.
In an interview with the newspaper, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian intelligence had intercepted information about an alleged order from Vladimir Putin to abandon previous restrictions during air strikes.
“He said: ‘Now there are no rules’,” Zelenskyy stated.
According to him, this order was issued in September. It was then that Russia began to strike Kyiv more heavily, targeting, in particular, educational institutions, hospitals and car dealerships.
The Kremlin has traditionally denied that the Russian army deliberately targets civilian facilities.
Dmitry Peskov stated: “The Russian armed forces do not carry out strikes on schools or hospitals.”
The Financial Times reports that its journalists examined the wreckage of a drone following a strike on a school in Kyiv. On the wreckage, they saw markings and inscriptions in Russian.
Photo credit: State Emergency Service
Another serious problem for Ukraine is Russian jet-powered drones.
They reach their targets more quickly and are therefore harder to shoot down. Russia is making extensive use of them in the current attacks.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times that Russia had launched around 500 drones in the space of a day. Roughly half of these were jet-powered.
According to him, Ukraine shoots down around 57 per cent of jet-powered drones and 85–90 per cent of conventional ones.
Kyiv is attempting to develop its own interceptor drones. Five models are currently undergoing testing. By the end of October, Ukraine expects to produce around 400 such drones.
But there is a problem with the engines.
“Engines are the key problem… We import a lot of them… We do have some domestically produced engines, but there aren’t enough of them,” Zelenskyy admitted.
Will Russia succeed in breaking Kyiv?
Articles in the New York Times, The Economist and the Financial Times all raise the same question: can Russian strikes on cities really change the situation on the front line and behind the lines in Ukraine?
The Economist notes that paralysing Kyiv is more difficult than it might seem.
The Ukrainian power grid is indeed weakened. But over the years of the war, repair crews have learnt to quickly restore damaged facilities.
Energy expert Olga Babiy says: “We need to look at our infrastructure not from the point of view of whether it can be destroyed, but from the point of view of whether it can be restored and how quickly.”
But even if the system can be restored, a new Russian campaign could prove costly for Ukraine.
The Financial Times reports that the Ukrainian authorities also fear a new wave of refugees heading for Europe.
The Economist notes that Kyiv residents who have somewhere to go are already preparing to spend the winter outside the capital — in private homes, at their dachas or with relatives and friends in other regions of Ukraine.