The Kremlin is escalating its rhetoric threatening NATO states in parallel with the escalation related to the recent incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its report.
The analysts drew attention to statements made by Russian Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on 15 September.
“Peskov and Medvedev’s statements about a possible war between Russia and NATO are intended to prevent the alliance and European states from taking measures to protect themselves and Ukraine from Russia’s aggressive and threatening behaviour, such as the 9-10 September drone incursion into Poland,” the report said.
The ISW also said that Russia was using the joint Zapad-2025 exercise with Belarus to practice potential future provocations against neighbouring NATO states.
“Russian troops practised defence against and use of nuclear capabilities in the waters of the Barents Sea, which borders NATO member Norway. Russian troops also practised the use of nuclear-capable missiles in the Kaliningrad region, which directly borders NATO states Lithuania and Poland,” the Institute for the Study of War said.
Analysts said the Zapad-2025 exercises provide both Russia and Belarus “a platform for perfecting kinetic escalation techniques, which themselves serve as a subtle form of pressure on NATO.”
Russian Security Council Chairman Medvedev said on 15 September that a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, which would allow NATO planes to shoot down Russian drones, “would mean only one thing – war between NATO and Russia.” Medvedev also said Russia would “prosecute” EU states that provide loans secured by Russian assets to Ukraine in “all possible international and national courts” and threatened that “in some cases [Russia] will bypass the judicial procedure.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 15 September that” NATO is at war with Russia “and that” NATO is “de facto participating” in the war by supporting Ukraine. Peskov, like Medvedev, condemned European efforts to seize frozen Russian assets, saying that “such steps will not go unnoticed.”
ISW recently said Russia is making “multilateral efforts” to prepare for a potential future war with NATO and “seems to be getting bolder about the kind of escalation it is prepared to experience.”
In early September, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called an increase in defence spending by alliance countries inevitable as he said the threat from Russia was growing by the day.
The NATO secretary general said in June that Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. He called on the alliance’s member states to radically strengthen their defence capabilities, including increasing NATO’s air and missile defence capabilities by 400 percent, to effectively counter threats from Russia.
Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have repeatedly said that Russian officials appear to be setting the stage for withdrawal from international arms control treaties in preparation for a possible future war with NATO.