The State Secretariat for the Swiss Economy (SECO) has downgraded the country’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% from 1.5% expected in December, due to uncertainty and concerns about a global trade war.
The estimate for GDP lift in 2026 was lowered to 1.6 per cent from 1.7 per cent.
This rate of economic growth is below the historical average (1.8%), the department said.
“Current projections assume that there will be no escalation of the global trade war,” SECO said. “However, some negative impacts should be expected” as uncertainty affects investment decisions and economic dependence, it noted.
At the same time, the report said that “global demand and economic activity in Europe could exceed current expectations, for example as a result of a comprehensive fiscal package such as the one being considered in Germany.” “In such a positive scenario, demand for Swiss exports would strengthen and Switzerland would enjoy higher economic growth,” experts said.
Inflation in the country is expected to remain low. According to SECO’s forecast, consumer prices will rise by 0.3 per cent in 2025 (as previously estimated) and by 0.6 per cent next year.
Unemployment will be 2.8 per cent this year and 2026, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 2.7 per cent.