The global economy will grow by 2.8 per cent in 2025, similar to the rate of recovery last year, UN economists forecast.
Global GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 2.9 per cent in 2026.
“While the global economy has shown resilience, withstanding a series of mutually reinforcing shocks, growth remains below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 per cent due to weak investment, slow productivity gains and high debt burden,” the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 (WESP 2025) report said.
Weakening inflation and monetary policy easing in many countries could provide a modest boost to the global economy this year. However, uncertainty remains high due to risks from geopolitical conflicts, heightened trade tensions and higher borrowing costs in many nations.
“In our interconnected economies, shocks in one part of the world lead to higher prices in another,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a foreword to the report. – Every country has a stake in this problem and must therefore be part of the solution, building on the progress that has been made. Together, let us make 2025 the year we set the world on a path to a prosperous, sustainable future for all.”
The UN estimates that the US economy will grow by 1.9 per cent in 2025 and 2.1 per cent next year. For the UK, the forecasts are 1.2 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively, and for Japan 1 per cent and 1.2 per cent. GDP growth for the European Union is expected to be 1.3% and 1.5% in the next two years, for eurozone countries – 1.1% and 1.3%.
China’s GDP is forecast to grow by 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year, Brazil’s by 2.3% and 1.9% respectively, and India’s by 6.6% and 6.7%.
Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.6 per cent in 2025 and 1.8 per cent in 2026. For developing nations, these projections are 4.3 per cent and 4.2 per cent respectively.
The UN expects world trade to grow by 3.2% this year and 3.5% next year. In 2024, it is projected to increase by 3.4 per cent.
“Trade tensions, protectionist policies and geopolitical uncertainty pose significant risks to the outlook” for global trade, the report said.
Global inflation is projected to slow from 4% last year to 3.4% in 2025, benefiting households and firms. Major central banks are expected to continue cutting interest rates this year as the inflationary impact continues to fade. Inflation in many developing countries, while moderate, will be higher than recent averages, with one in five in 2025