According to Experts Club, the global oil market has entered a phase of a major fuel crisis following more than half a year of declining commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products, whilst the scope for further use of strategic reserves is becoming increasingly limited, writes The Wall Street Journal, citing executives from major US oil companies.
As the publication notes, US oil companies have been warning for several months that prolonged restrictions on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz would ultimately lead to a fuel shortage. Now, in their view, that moment has arrived.
Commercial fuel stocks worldwide have been declining for more than six months. At the same time, governments have already been actively drawing on strategic reserves to keep prices in check, meaning that the volume of available additional supply has fallen significantly. The WSJ emphasises that this does not mean government reserves have physically run out, but rather that the scope for further large-scale interventions is becoming significantly narrower.
Chevron’s Chairman, Mike Wirth, stated as early as 11 September that the reserves and other mechanisms which had kept oil prices in check for several months had ‘largely run their course’. According to him, global commercial oil stocks were at a high level at the start of the year, but by September they had fallen significantly.
The attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which allows oil to be exported bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, dealt a further blow to the market. Analysts estimate that, following the pipeline’s shutdown, at least 2.5 million barrels of oil per day have disappeared from the market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also confirms the supply problems. The agency describes the situation as the most significant disruption to oil supplies in the history of the global market. Before the crisis, around 15 million barrels of crude oil and a further 5 million barrels of petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz every day, which together accounted for approximately 20 per cent of global oil consumption.
To stabilise the market, IEA member countries agreed back in March to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves – the largest such release in the agency’s history. However, as the crisis continues, this reserve mechanism is becoming less effective.
According to the latest available IEA data, from the start of the Middle East crisis until the end of July alone, global observed oil stocks fell by approximately 410 million barrels, or an average of 2.7 million barrels per day. Total stocks have fallen below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025.
The situation is particularly tense in the diesel and aviation fuel markets. The IEA notes a sharp decline in international supplies of petroleum products and a record rise in refining margins. Diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East and Asia were approximately 1.3 million barrels per day below last year’s level, which corresponds to roughly one-fifth of global seaborne diesel trade.
An additional risk relates to China. In previous months, the country had cut imports and partially drawn down its own stockpiles, helping to curb global demand. However, in August, Chinese refineries were already processing more crude than was supplied by current imports and domestic production, prompting the country to draw down its reserves more rapidly.
Against this backdrop, Brent crude is once again trading above $100 per barrel. Following a fresh attack on Saudi infrastructure, Brent prices rose to around $107.5 per barrel on 15 September, whilst WTI climbed above $103.
The IEA cites the restoration of full-scale oil and petroleum product flows through the Strait of Hormuz as the key factor capable of rapidly stabilising the market. Without this, the global economy will remain vulnerable to further disruptions, as most of the reserves that enabled it to weather the first months of the crisis have already been used up.
Source: The Wall Street Journal article ‘Oil Executives Say the Great Fuel Crisis Is Here’ dated 15 September 2026.
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